DESCRIPTION:

This project is the pilot application of the McGregor Model Forest's "Approach to SFM " - using scenario planning, planning support technologies and indicators together in a "package" as the basis for building/delivering a management plan. This project will formulate and analyze (in conjunction with managing agencies) various resource management options for the 181,000 hectare Tree Farm Licence 30 area in preparation for developing its next official management plan, due in 2001. While not replacing the traditional plan preparation process, the results of this project will provide all the information and analysis required to begin preparing that management plan.

A key difference this project represents in management planning is that the traditionally "reviewing" agencies that must approve management plans are instead involved up-front and in every stage of the planning process. Another difference is the application of spatial computer modelling to forecast and report on a range of key performance indicators for each scenario. This makes it easier to understand the landscape conditions that might result from different management strategies, and in operational level "proofing". An additional difference is that a coarse filter analysis of objectives and strategies is undertaken, not just a sensitivities around the "status quo". Scenarios change multiple variables at the same time, without keeping others constant, to try and capture the new states that may develop after major deviations in key variables.

The application of McGregor's spatial models in portraying the scenarios requires a significant amount of data preparation - the models will only produce results as good as the information that feeds them. The organization and refinement of this information will be a critical phase of this project. Similarly, the organization of all key issues and questions to be addressed is also critical.

This project is the litmus test of the McGregor's "Approach", and is serving to formalize the overall procedures for linking scenario planning, computer model use, resource analysis, and indicator monitoring together as a management system. The results from this project will not only be management options for the TFL area, but also a transferable structure that further applications of the "Approach" in other jurisdictions (such as the Morice & Lakes Innovative Forest Practices Agreement) can follow. The aspect of on-the-ground indicator monitoring to compare "planned performance" with "actual performance" is not an initial commitment of this project. However, project outcomes will be reviewed to see whether there is utility in proceeding with that aspect of the "Approach" based on company (and agency) priorities and resources.

An example of possible scenarios.

OBJECTIVES of the TFL30 Scenario Planning Project:
 

1. Use scenario planning to develop, demonstrate and document an implementable, objective driven and results oriented management plan for TFL30;
2. Engage managing agencies to produce specific ground rules and supporting rationale that satisfy the intent of the BC Forest Practices Code for TFL30 and considers objectives from an approved higher-level Land and Resource Management Plan;
3. Jointly develop, with managing agencies, specific objectives that are implementable with related indicators that can be monitored;
4. Make the most efficient use of growth potential on TFL30 while considering a practical array of social, economic and ecological objectives; and
5. Look for business and administrative efficiencies.

DELIVERABLES of the project:
 

1. A technical work plan detailing the project;
2. A report describing possible future scenarios for TFL30 including management strategy descriptions and analysis of strategies by indicator;
3. Identification and forecasting of social, economic and ecological indicators for each scenario;
4. Recommendations for evaluating and reporting on key performance indicators;
5. Test decision scenarios to consider consistencies with an approved LRMP;
6. Review project outcomes with respect to the utility of proceeding with the long-term indicator monitoring (and adaptive management) aspect of the McGregor "Approach to SFM"

CONTACTS:

McGregor Model Forest Association, PO Box 2640, Prince George, British Columbia, V2N 4T5
 

PARTNERS:

This project is a coordinated effort between Canfor Corp., the McGregor Model Forest, the McGregor Resource Analysis Group, the BC Ministry of Forests, the BC Ministry of Environment, and Fisheries & Oceans Canada.

RESULTS:

Project results on file with McGregor Model Forest Association.